Putin will be killed this year, interview with opposition leader

Dictator Vladimir Putin can be killed by Ukrainian or Western military, someone from his entourage or Russians themselves - there are several possibilities, but with a probability of 90 percent it will happen within a year, says Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev.

In an interview with Radio NV, he told what is happening around the Kremlin leadership and what he is aiming for, why Ukraine will definitely win and why the Russian threat will remain even after the collapse of the Russian Federation.

Does Putin understand the trouble he got into because of the war with Ukraine? What now: purges, coups? Will he live and be afraid?

I hope he begins to understand. He receives information from his immediate surroundings. They are trying not to tell him anything so he won't accuse them of anything. So I think his information is at least incomplete.

- Detained by the military counterintelligence, deputy head of the Russian Guard Roman Gavrilov. There is information that representatives of the FSB are beginning repressions against the military elite of the Russian Federation. Is Putin afraid of such things?

"It is not about fear. It is about finding those responsible for all these losses and failures that the Russian army is suffering in Ukraine. This is also a matter of life and liberty for the top leadership of the Russian Federation: if no one is found guilty, who is to blame? Personally [Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai] Patrushev and [Russian Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu? Of course, they don't want that: They have to blame someone, but not themselves.

Does Putin's entourage fear and hate him at the same time?

"Hate" is probably the wrong word. Putin has now become very dangerous for the entire Russian elite. There are some people who are irrevocably linked to him, for example, the same Patrushev. They understand: If not Putin, then they will not only give up power, but can lose not only their freedom, but also their lives.

The vast majority of the elite in Russia are now trying to save themselves from being hit hard by Western sanctions. That is, if you follow the example of the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [Elvira] Nabiulina: She has already tried to resign once, made a request to that effect, but she was not satisfied. According to my information, the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation [Anton Siluanov] did the same. There are rumors from Moscow that they have started to position themselves very [boldly] at meetings in the Kremlin. They say, "We didn't create this problem - it's not our job to stir up this mess."

As political scientist Andrei Piontkovsky says, someone has to enter Putin's bunker.

"First you have to understand where he is. In my opinion, one way or another, he should be in Moscow. Maybe not in the Kremlin, but in Novo-Ogaryovo, in his residence. If he disappears somewhere from Moscow, it will be very badly received by the Russian elite.

But there are rumors that he is somewhere in the Urals. There is information that there is not even one, but two bunkers. And he doesn't tell anyone which one he is in. The bunker is a prison. And someone can just lock it.

What will happen next? What possible scenarios for events to unfold can you express?

He needs a victory now. He can't afford to lose. And that is a win at any cost. Winners are not judged - this principle is guided by the Kremlin and Putin personally. Of course, it will be hard for us, because he will simply destroy Ukrainian cities, bomb them and try to get this victory. But this is no longer possible.

There is no way he can win by military means. Probably they will try to use the West as certain peacekeepers who will agree to a ceasefire for a certain period of time. But the question is: Is it a short-term or long-term ceasefire? Does it mean that the army will stay in their positions? Will it be moved somewhere? For example, to those positions that existed before this invasion began. These are all very big questions.

But Putin needs a victory. Without it, he would be just a coffin. It will be soon. For him to survive this year is not very likely. I believe that this year will be the last year of Putin's life.

Could Putin be killed? For example, someone from his inner circle.

I am 90% sure that this will happen this year. But I don't know who [will do it]. It could be someone from his entourage. This will not be the immediate circle, but the second circle, which may be motivated by Russian companies or someone else. He could be killed by the rebellious Russian people, and that is also very likely because the problems will grow. If people have weapons and a leader, that can happen.

He may also be killed by Ukrainian or Western military forces. This is also possible. The threat to the whole world that Putin is now creating by talking about nuclear weapons is very great. If the West believes that the threat is real, it will do something about it.

Is there a person in the Russian Federation who could become an alternative to Putin? Who will come to power and put it all together: end the war in Ukraine, admit that the Russian Federation has lost?

There are many such people, but we don't know them. They will appear in the endgame of this drama.

I don't think that the personalities we know very well - Alexei Navalny or Mikhail Khodorkovsky - can be such [leaders]. There will even be some competition between the figures of the ultra-right flank. For example, [a retired Russian military officer, former FSB colonel, war criminal Igor] Girkin is against Putin, not for him. There is no need to have any illusions here. And someone who will be a representative of the left flank. I think that between them there will be the main competition, because the demand for the appearance of such figures in Russia is growing.

- They say that there could be a coup, the removal of Putin from power, the assassination of the dictator. This is supposed to happen within a year. What are the immediate prospects? Week, two, month will Putin rage?

We will fight, win, but we will also suffer. This is war. But I believe that this war will put the last point in the life of modern Russia, what it is now. After that, we will know a very different country if it remains united, which is not entirely obvious.

I have often said that the key to Russia's freedom, to the changes in Russia, to the collapse of Putinism lies in Ukraine. Now we see it.

What are the prospects for the collapse of the Russian Federation into individual states?

"Unfortunately, this is possible with me. Unfortunately, also for Ukraine. Because this determines the potential for very high instability on the Ukrainian borders: If Russia falls apart, there may be a civil war between individual countries, which will also affect Ukraine.

But worse than now, in my opinion, will not be. The main thing is that Putinism disappears, that these changes take place. In the end, Russia will be both a free and a democratic country, as one or more parts, but like Ukraine will fall into the European Union. I am completely sure of that.